According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) ENSO forecast released on November 11th, La Niña conditions are forecasted for the January 2022 through March 2022 period, bringing North America its second winter in a row of La Niña conditions.
La Niña is associated with colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific Ocean and stronger-than-normal east winds.
While La Niña typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to the northernwestern U.S., in Colorado, winter weather conditions can vary significantly under La Niña conditions, with below-normal snowfall most likely in Southern Colorado.
“The La Niña pattern is generally warm and dry to the south, cool and wet to the north,” Russ Schumacher, Director of the Colorado Climate Center said. “The caveat is that Colorado is kind of in the middle, in terms of how the storm track evolves during a La Niña winter or El Niño winter, so it only explains so much of what’s happening here. Historically La Niña is pretty good for northern mountains. The farther north you go, the better.”
Last year, a moderate or strong La Niña was in place from November through January.
The NOAA forecast for this winter projects warmer-than-normal temperatures in Colorado, normal precipitation/snowfall in Northern Colorado and below-normal precipitation in Southern Colorado.
Projections suggest that La Niña conditions might end in Spring or Summer of 2022.